Trump 2.0: Predictions on How a Second Term Could Reshape Technology

A second Trump presidency is not just a change in administration; it’s a restructuring of how technology is governed, funded, and integrated into the global economy. The first Trump term was marked by deregulation, protectionist trade policies, and an unpredictable approach to global alliances. The second term, with a far more experienced and ideologically hardened administration, could take these tendencies even further—fueling a short-term boom in some sectors while creating long-term instability in others.

Prediction #1: A More Volatile, Less Predictable Tech Environment

Technology is already at an inflection point. AI is evolving faster than regulatory bodies can track, crypto is oscillating between mainstream adoption and regulatory crackdowns, and social media is undergoing a structural shift as platforms realign along political and ideological lines. Add to this Trump’s tendency for abrupt policy changes—loosening industry restrictions one day, escalating trade tensions the next—and the result is a deeply uncertain business climate.

For Silicon Valley, there will be clear wins. Trump’s administration is expected to dismantle many of the regulations that have slowed AI development, remove legal and bureaucratic barriers to crypto expansion, and scale back antitrust enforcement—allowing major tech firms more freedom to acquire competitors and consolidate power. This will create a surge in investment, product launches, and dealmaking.

But there’s another side to this equation. Trump has made it clear that he sees trade as a zero-sum game, and his second term will likely come with new tariffs and restrictions on China. Given that much of the semiconductor industry relies on China for manufacturing and Taiwan for chip production, supply chains could be thrown into turmoil, raising costs and limiting access to key materials. Immigration restrictions could further shrink the talent pool in AI and engineering, making it harder for U.S. firms to remain globally competitive.

Short-term, this deregulation-first approach will create a flurry of innovation. Long-term, the volatility it introduces—particularly in global supply chains and labor markets—could create new constraints that are harder to unwind.

Prediction #2: AI Will Grow Faster, and Riskier

One of the first moves from the new administration was to rescind Biden’s executive order on AI, removing key regulatory provisions that required AI developers to disclose safety testing results. The assumption in Silicon Valley is that this means the government is stepping back from regulating AI altogether. That may not be entirely true.

Trump has expressed little interest in regulating AI at a federal level, but that doesn’t mean AI companies are free from oversight. What it likely means is that regulation will shift from proactive to reactive. Instead of clear, preemptive rules about what companies can and can’t do, regulation will come in response to crises—AI-powered financial fraud, deepfake-driven election interference, or catastrophic failures in self-driving technology. This approach makes it easier for AI firms to experiment aggressively in the short term but could lead to more dramatic regulatory overcorrections when something inevitably goes wrong.

There’s also the international dimension. The EU is already moving forward with some of the most comprehensive AI regulations in the world, and China is creating its own AI governance frameworks. If the U.S. remains an outlier, it could push American firms toward riskier, more unregulated business models—creating an innovation advantage but also increasing systemic risks.

Prediction #3: Crypto and Blockchain Get a Second Wind

During his first term, Trump showed little interest in cryptocurrency. That has changed. His 2024 campaign accepted donations in Bitcoin, and his allies in Congress have signaled a shift toward a more favorable regulatory climate for digital assets.

One of the clearest signals came from the SEC, which recently launched a crypto task force under Commissioner Hester Peirce—widely seen as one of the few crypto-friendly voices at the agency. The goal, according to insiders, is to create a clearer and more business-friendly framework for digital assets, resolving the legal uncertainty that has stalled the industry.

A second Trump term is unlikely to bring a free-for-all in crypto, but it will likely introduce a framework that shifts regulation toward disclosure rather than prohibition—emphasizing transparency in digital asset markets rather than trying to ban or severely restrict them. That’s good news for institutional investors and firms working on blockchain-based financial products, as regulatory clarity has been one of the biggest obstacles to broader adoption.

Prediction #4: A Boom in M&A and Private Investment

The previous Trump administration was characterized by sweeping deregulation efforts, and that trend is expected to continue. One of the most immediate impacts will be a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions, particularly in tech, where companies have been hesitant to pursue deals due to regulatory uncertainty.

That’s about to change. A Morgan Stanley report predicts a 40-50% increase in M&A volume in 2025, driven by tech, energy, and healthcare. Tech giants sitting on massive cash reserves—Apple alone has over $160 billion—will take advantage of relaxed antitrust scrutiny to acquire AI startups and cloud computing firms.

Private equity is also poised for a comeback. With $2.5 trillion in undeployed capital, firms like Blackstone and KKR are expected to be aggressive buyers in 2025, particularly in AI and cybersecurity.

Prediction #5: The Splintering of Social Media Accelerates

One of the more overlooked shifts in technology over the past few years has been the ideological realignment of social media platforms. In the past, social media was a largely unified space—Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube captured the majority of attention, and political content coexisted within those platforms. That is no longer the case.

With Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter (now X) and Mark Zuckerberg’s launch of Threads, social media is increasingly divided along political lines. The trend is accelerating: Bluesky, a decentralized alternative to Twitter, saw a 519% increase in U.S. usage following the 2024 election, according to SimilarWeb. Meanwhile, conservative platforms like Truth Social and Rumble are gaining traction as alternative media ecosystems.

The return of Trump will likely accelerate this trend. As traditional platforms either embrace or resist his influence, users will self-sort into distinct online communities. This has significant implications for both the information ecosystem and the ad-driven business model that underpins social media. Advertisers, wary of associating with politically polarizing content, may begin to rethink their strategies, further reshaping how these platforms operate.

Prediction #6: The Electric Vehicle Transition Slows—But Doesn’t Stop

Within days of taking office, Trump paused funding for electric vehicle incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, signaling a shift away from the pro-EV policies of the Biden administration. He has also pledged to roll back emissions regulations that require automakers to transition toward EVs.

This will likely slow, but not halt, the transition to electric vehicles. The U.S. auto industry has already invested billions into EV infrastructure, and consumer demand for EVs—though still fluctuating—continues to grow. Automakers will likely adjust their strategies, shifting more of their investment toward hybrid vehicles or focusing on overseas markets where government incentives remain strong.

What Comes Next?

Periods of deregulation, policy instability, and rapid technological advancement tend to create opportunities—but they also increase risk. Investors, companies, and policymakers will need to approach this new era with a clear understanding of how short-term gains may translate into long-term consequences. The regulatory rollbacks of today may fuel the overcorrections of tomorrow, and the industries that thrive in the next four years may be the ones that are best prepared for what comes after.